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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas yesterday.  It's here.

MARCH 17,  2014

Note:  Our reader Will Stroock, an esteemed military historian and novelist, is asking this question
of the Urgent Agenda readership:  "Thinking back on the contest between Mitt Romney and Barrack Obama, what comes to mind. Events, images, etc...."  Will has a reason for the question, which will be disclosed.  Please send us any answers you wish.  I'll publish quotes.

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:50 P.M. ET:

A LAFF RIOT – Remember when the Iranian government ministers were seen laughing after their interim nuclear agreement with the West was completed?  They laughed because they had us for lunch.  There's more laughter today.  From ABC:  "Russia’s deputy prime minister laughed off President Obama’s sanction against him today asking 'Comrade @BarackObama' if 'some prankster' came up with the list."  I guess Obama's contribution to the world is to supply it with laughter...at our expense.

AIRLINER – I have a sense that the story is getting tiresome, and will soon fade from the headlines unless the plane is found, to be revived maybe months later when something substantive turns up.  The Malaysians have botched the probe, and again today backtracked on previous claims.  Malaysia is a third-world militant Muslim country.  It will only accept certain conclusions.  There was no real news today, only theories.  CNN and Fox have had on every aviation "expert" alive today, and some who are not.  The Israelis, meanwhile, are hardening their air defense and requiring extra identification from incoming foreign airliners, just in case the Malaysian airliner, or some other hostile craft, shows up.

A RARE HAPPY ENDING – From Variety:  "Hollywood’s largest fellowship of conservatives and right-of-center independents, Friends of Abe, has been granted 501(c)3 non-profit status by the Internal Revenue Service, about three years after it first sought the designation.  Jeremy Boreing, lead organizer for the group, who has been serving as its executive director, said their attorney received word late on Friday that they had been granted the status."   Good.

MORE "RESEARCH" – From the New York Post:  "With rising population, depleting natural resources and stretching social divide, civilization could be facing collapse within the next few decades, according to a scientific study funded by NASA. And if you think this is a load of scaremongering, it’s happened before. Remember the Roman Empire?"  Yeah, I do.  I also remember when NASA's business was to send men to the moon.   It only became a social-service agency when Obama was inaugurated and told its director that one of his main functions was "Muslim outreach."

March 17,  2014     Permalink

THIS IS NOTHING – AT 11:07 A.M. ET:  Our first official action in response to the Crimean developments is even weaker than I expected.  It's Obama at his most Obamanesque.  From CNN:

(CNN) -- [Breaking news update at 10:59 a.m.]

After announcing Ukraine-related sanctions targeting some Russian officials and others, U.S. President Barack Obama told reporters Monday that the United States wants to make it clear to Russia "that further provocation (in Ukraine) will do nothing" except diminish Russia's standing in the world.

[Original story posted at 10:44 a.m. Monday]

(CNN) -- The United States and European Union announced sanctions including asset freezes and travel bans on officials from Russia and Ukraine after Crimea applied to join Russia on Monday following a controversial weekend referendum.

Crimea's Moscow-backed leaders declared an overwhelming 96.7% vote in favor of leaving Ukraine and being annexed by Russia in a vote that Western powers said was illegal. Turnout was 83%.
The result did not come as a surprise. But what happens next is far from certain. Diplomatically, Sunday's referendum has put the United States and Russia on the kind of collision course not seen since the Cold War. Economically, it's unclear how much such a coupling will cost Russia. And politically, it's divided Crimeans, some of whom think it will bring better pay and some who see this as a Kremlin land grab.

After a meeting in Brussels, the EU's 28 foreign ministers agreed on a list of those to be sanctioned for their part in the seizure of Crimea by pro-Russian forces and the referendum.

COMMENT:  This is nothing.  It's a slap on the wrist with a soft balloon.  As General Jack Keane just said on Fox, the Russians won't back down in the face of these weak sanctions.  Only real damage to their economy might move them.

Score one for Vlad.

March 17, 2014        Permalink

THE AIRLINER – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  There is very little new overnight about the Malaysian airliner, whose disappearance has turned into one of the great mysteries of our time.  However, there is this tidbit from Fox that may bear some study:

Authorities are also examining whether the jet's disappearance was tied to a 9/11-style plot masterminded by Al Qaeda's Khalid Sheik Mohammad, The Telegraph reports. Such a plot was mentioned by a British-born Saajid Badat earlier this week at the New York trial of Usama bin Laden's son-in-law Sulaiman Abu Ghaith.

Badat said that a Malaysia-based Al Qaeda cell of four or five people had planned to take control of a plane, using a shoe bomb to gain access to the cockpit. He added that he had met the jihadists, one of whom claimed he was a pilot, at a terror camp in Afghanistan and gave them a shoe bomb for use. The Telegraph reported that one possible target of such an attack could have been the Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, formerly the tallest buildings in the world.

The newspaper also reported that Badat, who was sentenced to 13 years in prison for his part in a conspiracy to blow up a transatlantic flight with shoe bomber Richard Reid, first made claims in 2012 about a possible shoe bomb attack.

Anthony Glees, a professor and director of the University of Buckingham’s Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies, called Badat's evidence "credible."

"These spectaculars take a long time in the planning,” a British security source told The Telegraph.

COMMENT:  We have no judgment on this because we have no independent facts. 

The United States has dispatched very sophisticated assets to the search area, including a Navy Poseidon aircraft that can "see" underwater by electronic means. 

At the same time, the backgrounds of the flight crew are being intensively investigated.  I caution, though, that these probes are being carried out by Malaysian authorities, which means that statements are issued by the Malaysian government.  That government has its own agenda and priorities.  Any public statements should be understood in that context.

March 17, 2014       Permalink

HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  Well, history doesn't repeat itself.  As we've written here many times, it's the psychology of history that repeats itself.  Are we seeing that now?  Consider this, from chess champion and superb political analyst Gary Kasparov, in The Politico Magazine: 

When I tweeted about the possibility of a “Ukrainian Anschluss” on Feb. 20, the Sochi Games were still underway. I noted that Putin’s invasion of Georgia took place during the Beijing Olympiad in 2008 and wondered what would dissuade him from similar action in Ukraine since Russian troops still occupy South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgian territories, with no visible harm to Putin’s international relations. By the way, Russia was never sanctioned by the European or the United States over Georgia, and just a few months after the brief war ended the EU restarted talks with Russia on a formal partnership and cooperation agreement. It was quite high-minded of them, but when dealing with Putin, turning the other cheek just gets you slapped again.

A week or so later, to my surprise, “Anschluss” was on the front page of a Polish newspaper and on the lips of Hillary Clinton. And yet, those who oppose taking any serious action against Putin’s invasion of Crimea still enjoy scoffing at the now-obvious parallels with Hitler’s seizure of Austria and the Czech Sudetenland. It’s a hard habit to break, apparently.

It’s one thing for academics and pundits to calmly sympathize with Putin and his “vital interests” and his “sphere of influence,” as if 50 million Ukrainians should have no say in the matter. It’s quite another thing for Barack Obama, David Cameron and Angela Merkel to fret about the “instability” and “high costs” caused by sanctions against Russia—as if that could be worse than the instability caused by the partial annexation of a European country by a nuclear dictatorship, carried out with impunity.

COMMENT:  Very well said.  Kasparov has an understanding of history and how the psychology of history repeats.  We know how the appeasement of the 1930s ended.  I fear we're heading in the same direction, which also includes the stripping of our armed forces and a growing isolationism in the Republican Party.

March 17, 2014       Permalink

CRIMEAN VOTE, THE EXCITING AFTERMATH – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  Now comes the moment of truth for one Barack Hussein Obama Jr.  Crimea has voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia as part of Vladimir Putin's dream of a new Russian empire.  Here stands Obama, a failed, weak, American president.  Can he get into the real world...for the first time?  David Sanger in The New York Times sets the scene:

WASHINGTON — For five years, President Obama has consciously recast how America engages with the world’s toughest customers. But with Russia poised to annex Crimea after Sunday’s referendum, with a mounting threat to the rest of Ukraine and with the carnage in Syria accelerating, Mr. Obama’s strategy is now under greater stress than at any time in his presidency.

In his first term, the White House described its approach as the “light footprint”: “Dumb wars” of occupation — how Mr. Obama once termed Iraq — were out. Drone strikes, cyberattacks and Special Operations raids that made use of America’s technological superiority were the new, quick-and-dirty expression of military and covert power. When he did agree to have American forces join the bombing of Libya in 2011, Mr. Obama insisted that NATO and Arab states “put skin in the game,” a phrase he vastly prefers to “leading from behind.”

As he learned to play the long game, the Treasury Department became Mr. Obama’s favorite noncombatant command. It refined the art of the economic squeeze on Iran, eventually forcing the mullahs to the negotiating table.

But so far those tools — or even the threat of them — have proved frustratingly ineffective in the most recent crises. Sanctions and modest help to the Syrian rebels have failed to halt the slaughter; if anything, the killing worsened as negotiations dragged on.

The White House was taken by surprise by Vladimir V. Putin’s decisions to invade Crimea, but also by China’s increasingly assertive declaration of exclusive rights to airspace and barren islands. Neither the economic pressure nor the cyberattacks that forced Iran to reconsider its approach have prevented North Korea’s stealthy revitalization of its nuclear and missile programs.

In short, America’s adversaries are testing the limits of America’s post-Iraq, post-Afghanistan moment.

And this, in the same piece, quoting Condi Rice:

“There was a view that if the United States pulled back and stopped ‘imposing’ and ‘insisting’ in the world, the vacuum would be filled by good things: the international community and the allies,” Ms. Rice said in a recent phone conversation from Stanford University, where she teaches. “But what has filled that space has been brutal dictators; extremist forces, especially in Iraq and Syria; and nationalism.”

COMMENT:  Sanger is being too kind, but it's a reasonable analysis.  We started losing the minute Obama came into office.  His first steps were to snub America's allies, sending a dangerous signal to the world.  He famously sent back to Britain a bust of Winston Churchill that had rested in the Oval Office, an insult to a man who symbolizes resistance to aggression; he canceled the anti-missile systems promised to Poland and the Czech Republic, raising questions as to whether America could be trusted; he and his personal Tonto, Hillary Clinton, regularly chastised Israel; he ignored North Korea's nuclear progress. 

We are in trouble.  Does Obama understand?  We await his next move.  He has never shown much modesty, or a willingness to listen to wiser heads.  If he will not change, our national troubles will increase.

March 17,  2014     Permalink

MARCH 16,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:29 P.M. ET: 

CRIMEA VOTE – Crimea voted by a large margin to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.  President Obama said the U.S. and the international community would never accept the validity of the vote.  Now the crisis deepens.  The next move is up to us.  Is Obama up to it? 

SO TRUE – Our former UN ambassador, John Bolton, is one of the great truth tellers in American foreign policy.  His latest gem, regarding Ukraine: “I don’t think [the sanctions] will have much impact. I think the Obama administration and the Europeans are demonstrating weakness, these sanctions are pinpricks, and y’know we sent Secretary of State John Kerry to London to negotiate with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, that’s like sending a cupcake to negotiate with a steak knife.”  Bolton nails it.

THE AIRLINER – From themalaysianinsider.com:  "As the search for the missing flight MH370 enters its 10th day with few clues as to its whereabouts, the New Straits Times said today the Boeing 777-200ER dropped 5,000 feet (1,500m) to evade commercial radar detection...Investigators poring over MH370’s flight data had said the plane had flown low and used 'terrain masking' as it flew over the Bay of Bengal and headed north towards land, the NST reported."  Clearly, a knowledgeable person at the controls.  The focus remains on the pilot, especially his political activities, but there are no conclusions yet.

March 16, 2014       Permalink

A WARNING – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  Al Qaeda is warning about attacks in the United States.  From Breitbart: 

The latest issue of Al-Qaeda's Inspire magazine contains an article about using car bombs in U.S. cities as well as abroad during election seasons, both presidential and congressional, as well as on Christmas and New Years Eve.

The cities and areas listed in the piece include Washington, D.C., New York, Northern Virginia, Chicago, and Los Angeles:

America is our first target, followed by United Kingdom, France and other crusader countries.
As for the field target for the car-bomb, you have places flooded with individuals, e.g. sports events in which tens of thousands attend, election campaigns, festivals and other gathering. The important thing is that you target people and not buildings:

Washington DC and New York:

Washington is the capital, and New York is the former capital. Both have symbolic importance to the American people and government. Moreover, White House is in Washington, and DC has about 347,000 federal govern ment employees and many important figures in the government live there. As for New York, it is known for its status as a financial, cultural, transportation, and manufacturing center, it is the leading center of banking, finance and communication in the United States.

Northern Virginia:

It has a big military presence, almost all the military bases are based in this state, apart from the Air Force which is based in Chicago. There are federal agencies in Northern Virginia, including the headquarters of the Department of Defense and CIA; and military facilities in Hampton Roads, the site of the region's main seaport. Virginia in general attracts a load of tourists.

COMMENT:  Well, I wasn't aware that the Air Force is based in Chicago.  If it were, its planes would probably be stripped on the ground. 

As for the rest, we can say it's just words, but I'd be forewarned.  Recent testimony before Congress stated that Al Qaeda is growing, not shrinking, as Field Marshal Obama told us.  It is inevitable that they will target the U.S. homeland, as they have in the past.

March 16, 2014       Permalink

AIRLINER LATEST – AT 10:38 A.M. ET:  The focus has turned intensely to the cockpit crew of the missing Malaysian airliner, especially after the revelation that one of the plane's communications systems was turned off before the pilot said his good night to the Malaysian air controller.  From CNN:

The focus of the investigation into the fate of a Malaysia Airlines plane that disappeared from radar screens and lost contact with air traffic controllers last week shifted dramatically to the aircraft's two pilots after Malaysia's Prime Minister announced Saturday that someone appeared to have deliberately diverted the plane from its flight path, but kept it in the air for a number of hours after it vanished.

Malaysian investigators Sunday were examining a flight simulator taken from the home of one of the pilots, 53-year-old Zaharie Ahmad Shah and investigating engineers who may have had contact with the plane before it took off.

Khalid Abu Bakar, the inspector general, said police had confiscated the simulator and reassembled it in their offices to examine it.

Police on Saturday went to the Kuala Lumpur homes of both Zaharie and his 27-year-old co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, a guard and several local reporters told The Associated Press. Malaysia's Transport Ministry confirmed that both houses had been searched in a statement Sunday. It didn't say whether this was the first time they had done this since the plane went missing eight days ago.

Britain's Mail on Sunday, citing police sources, reported that Zaharie was an "obsessive" supporter of Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who was recently sentenced to five years in prison on a charge of sodomy. The Mail reported that Malaysian authorities fear that Zaharie may have been upset enough by Ibrahim's imprisonment to hijack his own aircraft as a form of political protest.

COMMENT:  Of course, there's still much speculation here, but the focus on the aircrew is the most important development.  Stand by for more.

March 16, 2014       Permalink

CRIMEA VOTES – AT 10:03 A.M. ET:  This is a decisive day in the Ukraine crisis.  Crimea, which is a peninsula on the southern end of Ukraine, votes today on its own future – remain Ukrainian, or split and go with Russia.  Most Crimeans are ethnically Russian, so it's assumed the latter course will be chosen.  But the West does not recognize the vote as valid.  From CNN:

Perevalnoye, Ukraine (CNN) -- Residents of Ukraine's Crimea region headed to the polls Sunday to vote in a disputed referendum on whether to join Russia or become an effectively independent state connected to Ukraine.

Beyond the question of Crimea's future status, the vote will likely influence future international relations in the region and beyond -- having put the United States and Russia on the kind of collision course not seen since the end of the Cold War.

Preliminary results could come as soon as Sunday night local time. The United States, which says the vote is illegal, has already said it expects the Black Sea peninsula's majority ethnic Russian population to vote in favor of joining Russia. Moscow has strongly backed the referendum.

Kicking off the polling in a prerecorded statement, Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov called on the residents of Crimea to cast their vote "independent of nationalism and disintegration."

Aksyonov acknowledged that the "eyes of the entire world are on us today." He asked Crimeans to show their aspiration to "live free in the world with friendly relations with all."

At a polling station in Perevalnoye, near a military base, a steady stream of voters arrived to cast their ballots despite the wintry weather.

Blaring dance tunes and Russian folk music welcomed them to the polling station, in an echo of Soviet times. What appeared to be a group of Russian soldiers -- without identifying insignia but with Russian license plates on their vehicles -- stood nearby.

COMMENT:  Should the vote go as expected, there will probably be urgent meetings in Europe and Washington tomorrow, with the prospect of some sanctions against Russia for encouraging the split and for trying to control the Ukraine generally.  Will these sanctions mean anything?  I doubt it.

March 16,  2014     Permalink